Global electric vehicle fleet to reach 145 million by 2030 – report
By comparison, reports the IEA, the global automotive market contracted by 16% in 2020. The strong momentum of electric cars continued this year, with sales in the first quarter of 2021 reaching nearly twice and half their level from the same period a year earlier. .
The short-term outlook is bright
The near-term outlook for electric vehicle sales is bright, says the IEA. In the first quarter of 2021, global sales of electric cars increased by around 140% compared to the same period in 2020, driven by sales in China of around 500,000 vehicles and in Europe of around 450,000. United States more than doubled from the first quarter of 2020, albeit from a much lower base.
Last year’s increase brought the number of electric cars on the world’s roads to more than 10 million, with around 1 million more electric vans, heavy trucks and buses.
Automakers have announced increasingly ambitious electrification plans, reports the IEA. Of the world’s 20 largest automakers, which accounted for around 90% of new car registrations in 2020, 18 have announced plans to expand their model portfolio and rapidly increase production of light electric vehicles. The availability of heavy-duty electric vehicle models is also expanding, with four major truck manufacturers pointing to a fully electric future.
For the first time last year, the IEA found, Europe has overtaken China as the center of the global electric car market. Electric car registrations in Europe more than doubled to 1.4 million, while in China they increased 9% to 1.2 million.
Electric vehicles are expected to experience significant growth over the next decade, according to the IEA. Based on current trends and policies, he projects that the number of electric cars, vans, heavy trucks and buses on the world’s roads will reach 145 million by 2030. But the global fleet could reach 230 million if governments step up. efforts to achieve international climate and energy. goals.
If governments around the world come together to pursue the even more ambitious goal of achieving net zero emissions globally by 2050, according to the IEA, the global fleet of electric vehicles will grow even further.
Governments around the world spent $ 14 billion on direct purchase incentives and tax deductions for electric cars in 2020, a 25% increase year-over-year. Despite this, the share of government incentives in total expenditure on electric vehicles has fallen from around 20% in 2015 to 10% in 2020.
All of the increase in public spending has occurred in Europe, where many countries have responded to the pandemic-induced economic slowdown with incentive programs that have boosted sales of electric cars. In China, government spending declined as eligibility requirements for incentive programs tightened.
Globally, around 370 electric car models were available in 2020, a 40% increase from 2019. China has the largest offer, reflecting its less consolidated automotive sector and the fact that it is the world’s largest electric vehicle market. But in 2020, the biggest increase in the number of models occurred in Europe – where it more than doubled.
Automakers offered 370 electric car models in 2020, a 40% year-over-year increase. Eighteen of the 20 largest automakers have announced plans to further increase the number of models available and boost production of light electric vehicles. These automakers account for 90% of all global auto sales.
the Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021 Notes that governments have helped protect electric cars from the 2020 recession by expanding existing policy and budget support, and increasing them with stimulus measures in response to the covid-19 crisis. Leading countries have also promoted the competitive position of electric vehicles by strengthening fuel and emissions savings standards, and stepped up their support for the development of battery technology and the deployment of charging station infrastructure.
More details on the implications of this path for electric vehicles and the wider transport sector will be provided in the IEA special report, Net Zero in 2050: a roadmap for the global energy system, which will be released in May.