Toyota to lead GM US sales again in third quarter, Edmunds and TrueCar predict
Two industry forecasters believe Toyota Motor North America has backed what is not “sustainable” and will beat General Motors in US sales for a second straight quarter as microchips and other shortages in the industry. supply are wreaking havoc on traditional market shares.
Most automakers are expected to report September and third quarter sales on Friday.
Edmunds and TrueCar predict the industry will see a substantial decline in the quarter as lower inventory hampered sales. Both forecasters expect Toyota to once again lead GM as it weathered the supplier storm better for at least part of the third quarter than its Detroit competitor.
For September, Edmunds expects the annualized and seasonally adjusted sales rate to be 12.3 million, while TrueCar expects it to be 12.2 million. The SAAR in August was 13.09 million; in September of last year it was 16.5 million.
Edmunds forecast puts Toyota’s third-quarter sales at 563,089, which would be a slight gain from the same period in 2020 but down 18% from its second-quarter volume. It sees GM fall to 456,031, a 32% drop from the previous year and 34% from the second quarter. Overall, Edmunds believes industry sales will fall 13% in the third quarter to 3.4 million vehicles, with only Hyundai / Kia (up 10%), Volkswagen Group (up 2.6%) and Toyota (plus 0.8%) capable of making a profit. . Edmunds also sees Ford and Stellantis register double-digit sales in the quarter.
Likewise, TrueCar predicts Toyota’s third quarter sales to rise 2.5% to 572,658 to take the industry leader in the United States, with GM sales falling by more than 200,000 in the quarter. at 441,307. TrueCar’s projections forecast a decline in industry sales of 15% from a year ago to 3.03 million and a decline of 23% from the second quarter.
Toyota continues to report sales monthly, while GM is among the automakers that only report sales quarterly.
Toyota topped GM in sales in the United States for the first time in the second quarter as it relied heavily on its supplier relationships to keep factories running amid deteriorating COVID-19 conditions.
At the time, Bob Carter, Toyota Motor North America’s sales manager, said the unprecedented feat was not “sustainable” for the company in the long run. In August, Toyota began announcing major cuts in global production as the pandemic closed supplier factories in Asia, and then continued those cuts.
“Third quarter new vehicle sales were a direct reflection of the worsening chipset and inventory situation. Although consumer demand continues to be high, sales have continued to decline each month because of the worsening of the chipset and inventory situation. there just aren’t enough vehicles that buyers want, “said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of ideas for Edmunds, in a written statement.
“The entire US auto industry – including Asian automakers, who were doing a bit better than their domestic counterparts until recently – is in an incredibly volatile position right now and we are seeing inflated retail prices across the board. domains.
“It is becoming extremely difficult to predict who will come out on top by the rest of the year, as every automaker is at the mercy of its suppliers and challenges logistics around the world.”